Political betting eastleigh by election
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- 08.11.2020
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Some men come by and bet in American dollars now. A major crisis is happening in the South American country of Venezuela. A corrupt government and massive inflation has caused a major crisis throghout the country. Those in poor slums are suffering heavily. The slum of Petare is one of the areas suffering the most. A van displays betting odds for Smarkets on an electronic board offering odds on the next Conservative party leader to replace Boris Johnson and chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak.
At the Good Friday race meeting in Musselburgh, punters were shown how much other political party leaders are lagging behind in the race to Number Ten. Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson with a mock up betting board revealing the odds. The pay-out applies to single bets placed before 9pm last night.
Member of the Bundestag Beatrix von Storch, deputy federal spokeswoman of the AfD, stands in a meeting room of the AfD parliamentary group in the German Bundestag before an interview with the German press agency dpa. Neil Hamilton, the former Tory minister who resigned over cash-for-question and who is now a senior figure in Ukip, said Eastleigh was now a three-way marginal. Claire Perry, the Conservative MP, said the byelection showed the need to link national arguments to local problems.
There's a row of about a dozen of them, wearing rosettes and sitting on the elevated benches at the back of the hall, all looking as if they are attending a funeral. Party officials still insist that it is too early to know, but they don't look as if they are anticipating a triumph. According to one party official, around 20 boxes have been counted already. There are 68 boxes in all to count. The Lib Dems and Ukip are both saying that it's looking as if Ukip has come second, but they are not making firm predictions yet.
Labour's Angela Eagle said the Tories would be in "meltdown" if they came third. See But she was only echoing what David Davis said on Wednesday. But if Labour do as badly as the polls suggest there may well be some sort of Labour party inquest too. Patrick Diamond, the former Number 10 adviser, has already kicked it off. In an article for the Guardian he says a poor result in Eastleigh would highlight the need for the party to do more to establish economic credibility.
Southern electors deserve an alternative to the coalition parties. The Conservatives and Lib Dems are perceived as economically prudent but harsh and unfair. Labour is viewed as caring but lacking the resolve to be a party of government. The voters deserve a governing party which ensures that even in tough times, economic efficiency and social justice go hand in hand. It's from the Labour camp, based on the what their counting agents have seen as they watched the ballot papers coming out of the boxes during the verification process.
They think that the Lib Dems have won just , that Ukip is in second place and that the Tories have come third. That means Labour has come fourth. But the party thinks it has increased its share of the vote from the 9. He has not conceded yet or, if he has, I did not hear it , but he is in full "brave face on defeat" mode: the Lib Dems were always going to do well here because they hold so many council seats, governing parties only very rarely win seats in byelections the last time was in , when the Tories took a seat from a Labour MP who defected to the SDP and was rash enough to seek re-election , and "One Nation" Labour should be doing better etc.
The verification process which involves counting the number of valid ballot papers is over, the counters have had a break and the full counting process is about to start. It was There are 80, people on the electoral role, according to the council. That means 42, people voted.
He still won't claim victory - he says that the Lib Dems, the Tories and Ukip are all close, and that he's seen elections like this that are expected to go one way turn suddenly at the end - but it's obvious that he does think he's won. It's the most important byelection of my lifetime because, in every other one, if we had not won, there would have been another opportunity along the way. He's just told my colleague Steven Morris that the Lib Dems have won.
Appear to be taking of all three established parties in eastleigh. BUT Tories hardest hit almost certainly. The single most important conclusion from tonight: David Cameron has never won a general election. If he can't win Eastleigh he never will.
In the past, when the Lib Dems won a byelection which normally involved taking a seat off another party , there was a sense of exhilaration. Tonight they're happy, but the dominant mood is more one of relief. We should be getting the final result very soon. The Lib Dems are now saying their majority is around 1,
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What does my model show? In short, for a very simple model, it fits the data remarkably well, explaining There are a number of interesting general findings which are worth pointing out: Governments get punished at by-elections. Holding all other factors including public opinion towards government parties constant, government parties receive 6. The Liberal Democrats are better at fighting by-elections than other two main parties. Holding all other factors constant the Liberal Democrats receive 2.
Labour appears to be particularly bad at fighting by-elections, fairing 2. There is no clear seat incumbency or size of majority effect — without taking the size of majority into account the incumbent party receives a 1. Holding everything else constant, when a majority is more than about 4. Before I move to what my model actually predicts there are several important caveats about why the Eastleigh by-election might be particularly difficult to predict.
This is the first by-election the Liberal Democrats have faced as the seat incumbents whilst in government. This is the first by-election where both Coalition parties face each other as the parties that finished first and second in the constituency at the preceding election. As Tom Chivers points out , unless the polling has been poorly carried out, there is almost no chance UKIP will win the Eastleigh by-election.
But they are nonetheless very interesting numbers. So it's probably a little unwise to steam into the 1. Those odds may represent value, or they may not, it slightly depends on which poll you believe. Turnout, though, should be high. The total number of voters in by-elections typically runs at around per cent of what you would expect in a General Election, but, according to a Tweet by Michael Crick, "Eastleigh Council say 14, postal votes issued, and they've had about 8, back so far, so about 11 per cent of voters already voted.
That will give further confidence to Liberal Democrat supporters. Dominant in local and national politics in Eastleigh since the mids, they are widely regarded as having the best information about local voters, and the more astute local organisation with which to capitalise on that information. And given Thornton's background, he will be well versed in how best to take advantage of both.
If the turnout is high, the reckoning goes, the Liberal Democrats will stand more chance of repeating their General Election success. According to some reports, even those Tories on the campaign are admitting - in private at least - that for all that they may have tried to woo locals with constant visits from the Tory glitterati, they have been woefully under-prepared in organising the boring necessities of a local campaign: they may have had Boris doing a few cameo door-to-doors, but they haven't had enough volunteers stuffing envelopes.
I'm not sure that this is the Coalition-partners-only race that Nick Clegg has allegedly claimed, though. For a start, try as he might to keep the focus of the by-election on local issues, the impeccably-timed allegations of sexual misconduct within the Liberal Democrat hierarchy will not help Thornton's campaign.
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