Latticework the new investing books
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He then applies these theories to investing and the stock market. Hagstrom makes a case that a successful stock picker must be ready to shift models and look at the markets from different vantage points with the passage of time. Instead of working like an analyst — plugging factual information into excel models — investors need to regard the insights or models from other disciplines too. The task of the investor, Hagstrom argues in Latticework , is to be well-read and always be open to a new perspective of the world.
This content is reserved for Prime Members. Can shift the entire bell curve to the right, but you still need the full spectrum Notes: We have observed anecdotal evidence of emergent behavior, perhaps without realizing what we were seeing.
Early in the book, the authors relate the story of the crash of a B bomber carrying four atomic bombs. Three of the four bombs were soon recovered, but a fourth remained missing, with the Soviets quickly closing in. A naval engineer named John Craven was given the task of locating the missing bomb. He constructed several different scenarios of what possibly could have happened to the fourth bomb and asked the members of the salvage team to wager a bet on where they thought the bomb could be.
He then ran each possible location through a computer formula and — without ever going to sea! And that is clearly the case in the stock market…The value of this way of looking at complex systems is that if we know why they become unstable, then we have a clear path to a solution, to finding ways to reduce overall instability.
One implication, Richards says, is that we should be considering the belief structures underlying the various mental concepts, and not the specifics of the choices. Another is to acknowledge that if mutual knowledge fails, the problem may center on how knowledge is transferred in the system. Psychology — Mr. Mental accounting is the reason we are far more willing to gamble with our year-end bonus than our monthly salary, especially if it is higher than anticipated.
Examples include the concepts of God and the afterlife. These are not tangible events like tables and chairs but rather abstract ideas that metaphysical questions readily concede the existence of the world that surrounds us but disagree about the essential nature and meaning of the world. The second body of philosophical inquiry is the investigation of 3 related areas: aesthetics, ethics, and politics.
Aesthetics is the theory of beauty. Philosophers who engage in aesthetic discussions are trying to ascertain what it is that people find beautiful, whether it be in the objects they observe or in the state of mind they achieve. This study of the beautiful should not be thought of as a superficial inquiry, because how we conceive beauty can affect our judgments of what is right and wrong, what is the correct political order, and how people should live.
Ethics is the philosophical branch that studies the issues of right and wrong. It asks what is moral and what is immoral, what behavior is appropriate and inappropriate. Ethics makes inquiries into the activities people undertake, the judgments they make, the values they hold, and the character they aspire to achieve. Closely connected to the idea of ethics is the philosophy of politics. Whereas ethics investigates what is good or right at the individual level, politics investigates what is good or right at the societal level.
Political philosophy is a debate over how societies should be organized, what laws should be passed, and what connections people should have to these societal organizations. Epistemology, the third body of inquiry, is the branch of philosophy that seeks to understand the limits and nature of knowledge. Epistemology, then, is the study of the theory of knowledge. To put it simply, when we make an epistemological inquiry, we are thinking about thinking.
When philosophers think about knowledge, they are trying to discover what kinds of things are knowable, what constitutes knowledge as opposed to beliefs , how it is acquired innately or empirically, through experience , and how we can say that we know a thing.
For pragmatism, anyone who seeks to determine the true definition of a belief should look not at the belief itself but at the actions that result from it. To develop its meaning, we have, therefore, simply to determine what habits it produces, for what a thing means is simply what habits it involves. Our understanding of truth evolves. Darwin smiles. So we can say that pragmatism is a process that allows people to navigate an uncertain world without becoming stranded on the desert island of absolutes.
Pragmatism has no prejudices, dogmas, or rigid canons. It will entertain any hypothesis and consider any evidence. If you need facts, take the facts. If you need religion, take religion. If you need to experiment, go experiment. It thrives on open minds, and gleefully invites experimentation. It rejects rigidity and dogma; it welcomes new ideas. It insists that all possibilities should be considered, without prejudice, for important new insights often come disguised as frivolous, even silly notions.
He enthusiastically examines every issue from every possible angle, from every possible discipline, to get the best possible description — or redescription — of what is going on. Only then does he feel in a position to explain.
To his investigation he brings insights from many fields…He continually studies physics, biology, and social science research, searching for ideas that will help him become a better investor…In an environment of rapid change, the flexible mind will always prevail over the rigid and absolute…Because you recognize patterns, you are less afraid of sudden changes. With a perpetually open mind that relishes new ideas and knows what to do with them, you are set firmly on the right path.
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It presents strong arguments to underscore the importance of a multidisciplinary approach to investing. Drawing from multidisciplinary focus, Hagstrom takes us through some key principles from a number of disciplines such as psychology, physics, biology, social sciences, literature and philosophy. He then applies these theories to investing and the stock market.
Hagstrom makes a case that a successful stock picker must be ready to shift models and look at the markets from different vantage points with the passage of time. Instead of working like an analyst — plugging factual information into excel models — investors need to regard the insights or models from other disciplines too. Without Warren Buffett being a learning machine, continuous learning machine, the track recrod would have been absolutely impossible.
My children laugh at me. At least it is if you want to win. Boy does that help, especially when you have a long run ahead of you. You have to work hard on it. Ask yourself what are the arguments on the other side. This is a great mental discipline. I had Thomas Jefferson over my bed at seven or eight.
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